???????????? ?????? : 1 ???????????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ? ??????????? ????????? ??????????????
???????????, ????????????? ?? ??????.
??? ?????????? ?????????????? ????????????? ?? ????????, ????
?????? ????????? ??? ???????????? ? ????????? ?????? ?????????? ???
??????.
???????? ???? ????????????? ??????? – ?????????? ???????????????.
????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????, ????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????
????????.
????? ?????? ? ????? ???????????? ????????? ?????????? ??
????????? ??? ?? ?????????? ?????? – SMA (simple moving average) –
??????? ?????????? ??????? ?????.
???????????? ?????? : 2 ???????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????:
????????? – ??????????? ?? ?????????? ??????? ? ?? ??????????????????.
???????????? – ??????????? ?? ?????????? ?????.
?????????:
SMA
MACD
PS MACD Histogram
CCI
Price Oscillator
????????????:
Williams %R
Stochastic Oscillator
SMA : 3 SMA SMA(X) - simple moving average
????? ???????? ??? ?? ???????????? ?????? X, ???????? ?? X.
SMA(5)=[Price(-4)+Price(-3)+Price(-2)+Price(-1)+Price(0)] / 5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
SMA : 4 SMA SMA(X) - simple moving average
????? ???????? ??? ?? ???????????? ?????? X, ???????? ?? X.
SMA(5)=[Price(-3)+Price(-2)+Price(-1)+Price(0)+Price(+1)] / 5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1
SMA : 5 SMA SMA(X) - simple moving average
????????? ?????????? ????????? ????????? ?? ????? – ??? ???????????
??????? ????? ? ????? SMA ?????????? ????????? ?????????. ???
?????? ?????? ? SMA, ??? ????? ?????????? ????????? ??????????. -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1
SMA : 6 SMA
SMA : 7 SMA ?????? ? ??????? SMA:
??????? ??? ?????????? ??????:
??????? ????? ?????????? SMA ????? ????? – ?????? ?? ???????.
??????? ????? ?????????? SMA ?????? ???? – ?????? ?? ???????.
??????????? ??????:
??????? ????? ??? SMA – ????? ?????.
??????? ????? ??? SMA – ???????? ?????.
SMA : 8 SMA
???? SMA : 9 ???? SMA ? ??????????? ?? ?????? ???????:
??????? (simple) - ??????????? ?? ???? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ????????? ?????, ?? ??????? ???? ???????? ????? ??? ????.
?????????? (weighted) - ??????????? ? ????? ???????? ???????? ???? ????? ??????? ?????? ? ?????????????? ???????? ????? ??????.
???????????????? (exponential) - ??????????????? ???????????? ???? ???????? ???? ? ??????????? ? ????????? ???? ? ??? ??????????? ? ??????????? ? ?????? ?????.
???? ??? * ???? = ?????????? ????
1 1 25 25
2 2 26 52
3 3 28 84
4 4 25 100
5 5 29 145
????? 15 133 406
?????????? ?? - 406 / 15 = 27.067
???? SMA : 10 ???? SMA
???? SMA : 11 ???? SMA ? ??????????? ?? ??? ??? ???????, ?? ????:
???????? (open)
???????????? (high)
??????????? (low)
???????? (close)
??????? ???? (median price)
???? SMA : 12 ???? SMA
?????? ??????? SMA : 13 ?????? ??????? SMA ?????? ????????? ????????:
?????: ??????:
????? ????????????? 5-13 ????
????????????? 14-25
????? ????????????? 26-49
????????????? 50-100
???????????? 100-200
??? ??????????????
?????? ?? ????, ??? ? ?????? 21 ??????? ??????, ? ?????? 5 ????????
???????, ? ???? – 12 ???????????? ? ?.?.
?????? ??????? SMA : 14 ?????? ??????? SMA ?????? ????????? ????????:
??? ????, ????? ???????? ?? SMA ?????????? ????????? ????? ??????,
??????? ? ??????? ???????? ?? ???????? ?????? ??????, ?? ? ????????
?? ???????? ???????? ?? ????????? ????????.
?????? ??????? SMA : 15 ?????? ??????? SMA
MACD : 16 MACD MACD – ?????????? ??????? ????????????-???????????.
?????????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ???????? ???????????????? ?? ?
????????????? 0.075 ? ???????? 26 ?? ??????????? ?? ?
????????????? 0.15 ? ???????? 12. ????? ???? ?????? ? ?????? MACD
???????? ????????????? ?????? ?????????? ????? (??????????? ?????),
??????? ???????????? ???????????????? ?? ?? MACD ? ???????? 9. SMA 26 SMA 12
MACD : 17 MACD ?????? ? MACD:
??????? ??? ?????????? ??????:
MACD ?????????? ??????????? ????? ????? – ?????? ?? ???????.
MACD ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ???? – ?????? ?? ???????.
??????????? ????????? ?? ????? MACD:
MACD ?????????? ???? SMA ????? ????? – ?????? ?? ???????.
MACD ?????????? ???? SMA ?????? ???? – ?????? ?? ???????.
MACD : 18 MACD
PS MACD Histogram : 19 PS MACD Histogram ??????????????? MA ? 9-??? ???????? ? ???????????? MACD. ?????????
? ???? ??????????? ??????? (???????????).
?????? ? PS MACD Histogram:
??????? ??? ?????????? ??????:
PS MACD Histogram ?????????? ??????????? ????? ????? – ?????? ?? ???????.
PS MACD Histogram ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ???? – ?????? ?? ???????.
PS MACD Histogram : 20 PS MACD Histogram
PS MACD Histogram : 21 PS MACD Histogram
CCI : 22 CCI CCI(Equis) - Commodity Channel Index
?????????? ?????????? ??? ???????? ???????????. ??????? ??????
?????????? ??????? ?? ????????? ???????? ????, ?? ???? ?? ????
????????? ??????? ????? ????????? ???? ? ??????. ???? ??? ?????
???????? ??????????? – ?? ????? ???????? ? ?????????? ??????.
100 + 100 => 200 – ??????? 100%.
200 + 100 => 300 – ??????? 50%.
? ?????????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????, ? ??? ? ????????????? –
???????.
??? ??????????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ????????? ????????? ??
??????? ??????? ? ??????????. ???? ??? ????????? ?? ??????????? –
????? ????????????, ???? ?????????????? – ???????????.
CCI : 23 CCI
Price Oscillator : 24 Price Oscillator Price Oscillator – ??????? ??????????
?????????????? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????, ????? ???????
????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ???? ? ????????????? ????? ? ?????
?????? ??? ????.
?????? ???????????? ? ????????? ? CCI – «??? ??????????» ???
??????????? ???????????.
????? ???????????? ???????? ???????, ???????????? ???????? ??????:
????? ????? – ???????
?????? ???? – ???????
Price Oscillator : 25 Price Oscillator
Price Oscillator : 26 Price Oscillator
Williams %R : 27 Williams %R Williams %R – ?????????? ??????? ????????
?? ??????????? ?????????? ??? ????????? ??? «???????????????» ?
«???????????????» ??????.
x? (???????? ????? ? ???) – ????????? ??????
??????????? ??? ??????????? ?????? ??? ????????????? ??????????. x y
Williams %R : 28 Williams %R ???? ??????????????? ???? ???????????????
Stochastic Oscillator : 29 Stochastic Oscillator Stochastic Oscillator – ?????????????? ??????????
?????????????? ?????????? ?????????? ???????, ????? ???? ??????
???????? ?????? ? ??????? ?? ????????? ????????? ?? ????????????
?????? ???????.
????????? ?????? ?????????? ? ????????? ?? 0 ?? 100%. ??? ????
???????? 0% ????????, ??? ??????????????? ??? ???? ???????? ????
????? ?????? ?? ???????????? ?????? ??????? X, ? ???????? 100%
???????? ??????? ? ???, ??? ? ???? ????? ??????? ???????????? ????
????????.
Stochastic Oscillator : 30 Stochastic Oscillator
Williams %R & Stochastic Oscillator : 31 Williams %R & Stochastic Oscillator ??? ???????? ? ?????
????? ???????????? ??? ??????????? ??????, ????? ????? ????????
???????:
??????????????:
??????????? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? – ?????? ? ???????.
??????????? ??????? ?????? ???? – ?????? ? ???????.
???????????:
????? ??????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ??????.
Stochastic Oscillator : 32 Stochastic Oscillator
RSI : 33 RSI RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI ??? ????????? ?? ?????? ??????????, ??????? ?????????? ?
????????? ?? 0 ?? 100. ?? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???? ?????? –
??????? ??? ?????.
?????????? ??????? ??????? RSI ???????? ????? ??????????? ?????
?????? ? ????????? ??????????. ???? ?????? RSI ???????????????
???? ? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????, ?? ????? ???????? ?
??????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ????????? ??????.
????? ???????????? ?????? ?? ??? ??????????????? ? ??????????????? ?
??????????? ???? ??? ????????? ???????? ???????? ??? ??????? ???
???????.
RSI : 34 RSI RSI (Relative Strength Index):
??????? Aroon : 35 ??????? Aroon Aroon – ??????? ??????????? ?????????? ?? ??????????? ??????? ??????
? ??????????? ??????? ??? ????.
AroonUp – ?????????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ????????? ? ???? ???????.
AroonDown – ?????????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ???????? ? ???? ???????.
Aroon Oscillator – ?????????? ???? ?????, ?????? ?? ????????? ???????????? ??????????? AroonUp ? AroonDown.
?????? ???????????:
AroonUp = [(N-H)/N]·100 (N – ??????, H – ???-?? ???? ????? ?????????)
AroonDown = [(N-L)/N]·100 (N – ??????, L – ???-?? ???? ????? ????????)
Aroon Oscillator = AroonUp – AroonDown
??????? Aroon : 36 ??????? Aroon ????? ??????? Aroon:
???????? ???????? ??????????? AroonUp ? AroonDown ?????????
??????? ??????? ??????, ? ?????????? ????????? ??????? ??? ????.
???????? ??????? – ??????????? ????? AroonUp ? AroonDown, ???, ????? ?????????????, ?? ??????????? ??????????? ? ??????? (+90) ? (+10).
?????????? ?? ?????? – ????? Aroon Oscillator ? ???? (+50):(+100) ??? ??????? ?????? ??? (-50):(-100) ??? ?????????? ??????.
??????? Aroon : 37 ??????? Aroon ???
??????? Aroon : 38 ??????? Aroon ???
??? ????????? ?????????? : 39 ??? ????????? ?????????? ??????????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ????????? ???? ?????? ???
???????? ?? ???????????? ??????.
?????????? ???????? ????? ????? ? ??????, ???????? ??????????? ? ?.?.
????????? ???????????? ? ????????????? ?????????? ??????????
??????????? ????? ???????? ????????? ? ????????? ?????.
????????, ????? ??????? ? 2008 ???? ??? ?????????? ???? ??????, ?.?.
????? ?????????? ??????? ????? ? ????? ???? ???????????? ??????????
??? ??????? ????????.
?? ??? ????????? ?? ?????? ? ??????? ????????? ???, ?? ??????????
????????????? – ????? ?????? ?? ??, ??? ???? ?? ?????????? ??? ????? ?
???????.
??? ????????? ?????????? : 40 ??? ????????? ?????????? ????????:
1. ?????? ????.
2. ????????? ?????? ??????????? (???????? ????????? ??????????!).
3. ?????????, ????? ?? ???????? ???????? ????????? ?-????????.
4. ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????????? ??????.
5. ?????????, ???????? ?????????? ???????.
6. ????????? ????????????????? ? «??????» ????????.
7. ???????? ????????? ? ?????????? ? ?????????.
???????????? ??????????? : 41 ???????????? ??????????? ???? ????????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ????? ? ??? ?? – ?????? ?????
??????? ????.
????? ????????? ?????? ? ????????? ???????? ? ? ??????????
?????????????? ???????? ??????????? ???? ???????.
??? ???????????? ? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ???????????? ?????
????????? ??? ??????????? ???????? ? ????? ?????????? ???
??????????????.
??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ? ???????????? – ???????? ??? ??
?????????? ? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ????? ??????????????? ?????????
????.
????????? ? ??????????? ????? : 42 ????????? ? ??????????? ????? ????-???? – ??????? ??????????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ???
??????????? ??????????? ?????????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????????
?????? ?????? ??????.
????????? – % ?? ??????? ???? (???????? 5%).
??????????? – ?? ?????? ?????????? ?? ??????? ???????.
???? ??????????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????????? – ?????????? ?????
??????.
????????:
???? – 100 ??????.
????????? ????-???? – 95 ??????.
??????????? ????-???? – 90 ??????.
??????, ????????? ????? ?????? ? 2 ????, ? ???? ???? ?????? ?? 90
?????? ??????? ?? ?? 5%.
?? ????? ????? ?????????? : 43 ?? ????? ????? ?????????? ??? ??????????, ?????????????? ????????:
??????? ?? ???????? ???????????? ???? ????????? ???.
??????? ?? ???????? ???? ???????? ????????? ???.
??? ???????????, ??????????? ????????:
??????? ?? ???????? ???? ???????? ????????? ???.
??????? ?? ???????? ??????????? ???? ????????? ???.
(? ???????? ??? ???????? ????)
??????????? ?????? ??????? : 44 ??????????? ?????? ??????? ? ????? ?????????? ????????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????:
???????????????? ????? ????? ???????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????????.
??????????? ? ?????????? ???????? ??????.
??????????? ??????.
?????????????? ????????? ???????????.
????? ???????????? ??? ? ????? ????? – ??????????? ????????? ?????? ??????????!
??????? : 45 ??????? ?????????? ? 1-3 ????????? ????????????, ?????????? ???????????
???? ????????? ? ?? ??????? ? ???????? ????????? ??????? ???
??????????? ? ????????? (??. ???????? ?? ?????? 40).