Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production
This study involves an assessment of the potential effects of greenhouse gas climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO2 on crop yields in Cameroon. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of 2 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, namely NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3, to the CropSyst crop model to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum and soybean) in 8 agricultural regions of Cameroon. For the future we estimate substantial yield increases for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, and little or no change and even decreases of maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region. Maize and sorghum (both C4 crops) yields are expected to decrease by 14.6 and 39.9%, respectively, across the whole country under GISS 2080 scenarios. The results also show that the effect of temperature patterns on climate change is much more important than that of precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change/variability and dissemination of information to farmers, to encourage adaptation to Climate change.
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