Slide 1 : Technology Forecasting April 2, 2009 Cori Zuppo
TECH 480, Research in VCT Little ideas…systematic analysis…big payoff
Where are we going today? : Where are we going today?
…we need a revolution… technology is the answer : …we need a revolution… technology is the answer
The power of vision : The power of vision “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
Wayne Gretzky
“The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise.” Tacitus : “The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise.” Tacitus
What does the future hold and what are our responsibilities? (or, beyond crystal balls, tea leaves and reality TV) : What does the future hold and what are our responsibilities? (or, beyond crystal balls, tea leaves and reality TV) http://www.davidzach.com/pop-DMZach-As-a-Futurist.php
http://www.davidzach.com/pop-DMZach-Wealth-Connections.php
http://www.davidzach.com/pop-DMZach-Health.php
What is technology forecasting? : What is technology forecasting? The description or prediction of a foreseeable technological innovation, specific scientific refinement, or likely scientific discovery that promises to serve some useful function, with some indication of the most probable time of occurrence
(obtained using a logic that yields
relatively consistent results)
Simplified process model : Simplified process model
Example: Statistical Model : Example: Statistical Model
Example: Causal Model : Example: Causal Model
Example: Structural Model : Example: Structural Model
Methods – S-curve : Methods – S-curve
Methods - Delphi : Methods - Delphi http://www.techcast.org/methodology.aspx
Example of consensus method
Method - Analogy : Method - Analogy
Method - Extrapolation : Method - Extrapolation
A few other methods : A few other methods “Genius” forecasting
Trend analysis
Simulations
Cross-impact matrices
Scenarios
Decision trees
Uses of tech forecasting: : Uses of tech forecasting: Identify developments
New products
New clients
Business start-ups (think dot com boom)
Estimate timelines
Reorient policy
Operational decision making
Production
Forecasting within a business context : Forecasting within a business context
Case study example : Case study example Company A
vs.
Company B
What are the implications?
Application: solving problems : Application: solving problems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLTMwn76FHQ
Pitfalls : Pitfalls Assumptions not questioned
Limited or misapplied expertise
Lack of imagination
Neglect of constraints
Excessive optimism
Mechanical extrapolation (ignoring context)
Over specification (lack of flexibility)
Quality matters! : Quality matters! Inputs into forecasting model
Caliber of minds applied to the task
Information, knowledge & intellect
“Assume you are wrong” : “Assume you are wrong” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9JWa4pHAyU
Creativity and Innovation : Creativity and Innovation Environment must facilitate creativity
Open to new ideas and innovations
There is a price to be paid for being too risk averse
What kind of environment facilitates the following?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvdTJARIFA
To lead or to be led? : To lead or to be led?
In your world… : In your world… Forecasting is based upon market research and analysis
Products
Geography
Investment market for media companies
Short term line of sight
Forecasting input examples: : Forecasting input examples: Demographic trends
Lifestyle choices
Gender preferences
Competitors
Competing markets (e.g. radio, satellite, internet outlets like Hulu)
Corporate structures, divestitures, acquisitions
Financial data
Existing technologies
Emerging technologies
Critical elements of analysis: : Critical elements of analysis: External conditions
Long term trends: market growth, demand for product, political/regulatory
Internal conditions
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Elements continued: : Elements continued: Financial conditions
Can company make financial investment and sustain it until it makes a profit
Position in existing markets
ROI
How does the proposed project align with the company’s mission, objectives, capabilities and current business model
Where have we been today? : Where have we been today?