Atmospheric Chemistry and the Climate System : Atmospheric Chemistry and the Climate System Martin G. Schultz, Thomas Diehl, Claire Granier, Judith Hölzemann, Shyam Lal, Bärbel Langmann, Ulrike Niemeier, Sebastian Rast
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002
Feedbacks Chemistry Climate : Feedbacks Chemistry Climate
The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere - Example for a bidirectional feedback : The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere - Example for a bidirectional feedback OH
Tropospheric Ozone Budget and Long-range transport of pollution : Tropospheric Ozone Budget and Long-range transport of pollution from IPCC 2001
Factors controlling the tropospheric ozone budget : Factors controlling the tropospheric ozone budget
Tropospheric ozone trend : Tropospheric ozone trend Maximum 8-hour mean
ozone concentrations
at British stations
from Eurotrac S&I, 2002
Long-range transport of air pollution: Export from North America : Long-range transport of air pollution: Export from North America
Long-range transport of air pollution: Import into Europe : Long-range transport of air pollution: Import into Europe Simulated CO concentrations over Europe, May 2001, ca. 850 hPa Western Europe Eastern Europe North America East Asia
Interannual variability in transport : Interannual variability in transport Same emissions, winds from ECMWF Changes in transport pathways lead to significantly different trace gas concentrations. Direct effect: different pathway from emission sources to receptor region
Indirect effect: north-south shift/vertical transport different chemistry (temperature, radiation, humidity)
Conceptual picture of major transport pathways : Conceptual picture of major transport pathways Europe Asia North America WCB WCB
Using chemical measurements on aircraft to quantify export and import fluxes : Using chemical measurements on aircraft to quantify export and import fluxes Direct involvement in large-scale field experiments (e.g. NASA TRACE-P, North Pacific, spring 2001; MINOS, Crete, summer 2001)
Modeling support for analysis of other field experiments (e.g. INDOEX, 1998, 1999; CONTRACE, 2001; BIBLE, 1997, 1998)
CO tracer forecasts during TRACE-P : CO tracer forecasts during TRACE-P Objectives:
Determine the chemical composition of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific in spring in order to understand and quantify the export of chemically and radiatively important gases and aerosols, and their precursors, from the Asian continent.
Determine the chemical evolution of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific in spring and to understand the ensemble of processes that control this evolution. before the campaign: planning of flight patterns
during the campaign: daily forecasts of CO
after the campaign: analysis with tagged CO
and full chemistry model
Example for model evaluation : Example for model evaluation Comparison of model results along TRACE-P flight track DC-8
for 7 March 2001 (local flight out of Hong Kong)
Evaluating the forecast quality : Evaluating the forecast quality Example for 7 March 2001, 0600 UTC, ca. 850 hPa
Measurement-Model Comparison INDOEX 1999 : Measurement-Model Comparison INDOEX 1999
Linking global and regional models : Linking global and regional models global model global+regional model regional model Effect of time-varying boundary conditions on Ozone concentrations over Germany Ozone in ppb
Interpretation of satellite data : Interpretation of satellite data Use of models to determine air mass factor (dependent on geometry, zenith angle, albedo, ...) Collaboration with Institute for Remote Sensing, University of Bremen
Outlook : Outlook Objective:
to provide a quantitative and consistent
description of the global tropospheric
budget of ozone
Tools:
full chemistry model MOZART, ECHAM tagged CO tracer model, and regional model REMO
Coordinating EU project:
REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years
Biomass burning emissions : Biomass burning emissions Significant emission source for many trace gases (and aerosol)
Large interannual variability in distribution and magnitude
Competition between man-made and natural fires
Fire characteristics ecosystem dependent
Ecosystems respond to fire
Impact of climate change
A new global inventory for biomass burning emissions using satellite observations of burned areas : A new global inventory for biomass burning emissions using satellite observations of burned areas GLOBSCAR data from ESA/ESRIN M = EF x A x x afl
Assessing the variability of biomass burning emissions : Assessing the variability of biomass burning emissions OCTOBER „Climatology“ Use of active fire counts (ATSR) to scale a climatological emission
inventory
Case study 1: Indonesia 1997/1998 : Case study 1: Indonesia 1997/1998 Scaled inventory from global model Importance of peat fires!
(90% of emissions from Borneo)
Severly understimated when using
satellite data to estimate emissions Aerosol simulations from regional model REMO
Case Study 2: Sydney, December 2001 : Case Study 2: Sydney, December 2001 Model simulation (MOZART) in T85L47, ECMWF winds, daily emission estimates using MODIS fire counts [near-surface CO in ppb] AVHRR image 01/01/2002 MODIS AOD average (courtesy A. Chu, NASA)
Outlook : Outlook Refine of global inventory, extension to multiple years
Investigate impact of Indonesian peat fire aerosol on meteorology
Analyse role of volcanoes for sulfur content in Indonesian peat fire emissions
Contrast Sydney 2001 with Sydney 2002
Develop methods for estimating biomass burning emissions based on meteorological parameters