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Presentation Transcript
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| Slide 1 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming | | Slide 2 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? | | Slide 3 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. | | Slide 4 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. | | Slide 5 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. | | Slide 6 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. | | Slide 7 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. | | Slide 8 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) | | Slide 9 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? | | Slide 10 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. | | Slide 11 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. | | Slide 12 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores | | Slide 13 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html | | Slide 14 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html " There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect. For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we were able to put a man on the moon For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide micro nutrients to end malnutrition Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion on global warming research and the only solution is we must end the use of fossil fuels. | | Slide 15 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html " There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect. For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we were able to put a man on the moon For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide micro nutrients to end malnutrition Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion on global warming research and the only solution is we must end the use of fossil fuels. “... no credible dissent from these conclusions.” http://www.reason.com/news/show/30433.html | | Slide 16 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html " There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect. For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we were able to put a man on the moon For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide micro nutrients to end malnutrition Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion on global warming research and the only solution is we must end the use of fossil fuels. “... no credible dissent from these conclusions.” http://www.reason.com/news/show/30433.html “Using a small telescope and makeshift gear, astronomers easily showed that we reflect 30 percent of incoming sunlight back into space - a number that our satellite system got earlier, at a price tag of hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Geoengineering
add particulates – design experiments; stay within natural variability, i.e. volcanoes
grow plants - trees in areas of low interest, but need to watch water consumption
- oceanic phytoplankton – “Geritol Solution” +iron, grow, sequester
Reflectivity - a 0.5% change in albedo solves the problem.
Outer space parasol
Naval guns and reflective chaff
grow shade trees
more concrete and white roof tops
jet fuel
make clouds – coal burning ships at sea A summary of Benford’s paper | | Slide 17 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. CO2 data from Vostock ice cores The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html " There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect. For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we were able to put a man on the moon For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide micro nutrients to end malnutrition Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion on global warming research and the only solution is we must end the use of fossil fuels. “... no credible dissent from these conclusions.” http://www.reason.com/news/show/30433.html “Using a small telescope and makeshift gear, astronomers easily showed that we reflect 30 percent of incoming sunlight back into space - a number that our satellite system got earlier, at a price tag of hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Geoengineering
add particulates – design experiments; stay within natural variability, i.e. volcanoes
grow plants - trees in areas of low interest, but need to watch water consumption
- oceanic phytoplankton – “Geritol Solution” +iron, grow, sequester
Reflectivity - a 0.5% change in albedo solves the problem.
Outer space parasol
Naval guns and reflective chaff
grow shade trees
more concrete and white roof tops
jet fuel
make clouds – coal burning ships at sea A summary of Benford’s paper Hypothesis: It's not the CO2 it is not even the waste heat
we generate, it is the inefficient use of energy.
Observations:
non reflective low albedo road surfaces
the urban heat island effect
internal combustion engine waste heat
air conditioner compressor exhaust
refrigerator heat exhaust Sample albedos http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island_effect Engine Efficiency
The efficiency of various types of internal combustion engines varies, but it is lower than electric motor energy efficiency. Most gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines, even when aided with turbochargers and stock efficiency aids, have a mechanical efficiency of about 20%. The efficiency may be as high as 37% at the optimum operating point. Most internal combustion engines waste about 36% of the energy in gasoline as heat lost to the cooling system and another 38% through the exhaust. The rest, about 6%, is lost to friction. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_combustion_engine#Engine_Efficiency | | Slide 18 : If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes Photograph courtesy NASA So is Mars and Triton. Is there commonality or is it coincidental? Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence.
John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. http://brneurosci.org/co2.html This cartoon at least has a labeled y-axis. Most available on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis label. Usually Absorbtion is listed with arbitrary units and Transmittance as percentage. This cartoon isolates each gas and does not show what happens as the gases mix and interact. Most spectra though only show near IR and a path length of only 1 to 10 cm. Let’s isolate the Near Infrared Absorbtion for CO2. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. Near IR spectra of CO2. Figure at left shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppm currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through it at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology
(now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991 http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe
Is there a difference? Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. http://www.ssmi.com/ There is a difference even if you use only satellite data. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes It should be a crime to purposefully twist, manipulate, or misrepresent data to suit a theory let alone an agenda. There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a |
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